TotalEnergies Predicts Sustained Negative Brent-Dubai Spread

TotalEnergies predicts a sustained negative Brent-Dubai spread despite increasing global supply from OPEC+ producers. Speaking at the APPEC energy conference in Singapore, Rahim Azouni, the company’s Senior Vice President of Trading and Shipping, said the Brent-Dubai Exchange of Futures for Swaps (EFS) remains in negative territory. It is expected to stay there for the foreseeable future.

The Brent-Dubai spread narrowed slightly, settling at 47 cents per barrel, but continues to reflect a preference for heavier, sour crude grades—particularly in Asia, where complex refiners benefit from discounts on Middle Eastern barrels. According to Azouni, a strong appetite for Dubai-linked grades is not being outweighed by the uptick in global supply.

This environment also favors U.S. exporters. The negative spread has made West Texas Intermediate (WTI) and other U.S. sweet crudes more competitive in the global market. TotalEnergies is currently transporting over 1 million barrels per day of U.S. crude across Asia and Europe, exporting 10–12 cargoes per month.

Azouni also highlighted the growing relevance of Latin America, particularly in Suriname, where TotalEnergies plans to increase production to 200,000 barrels per day by 2026. This adds another supply center that could further influence global pricing and crude trade routes.

Strategic Takeaways:

• The Brent-Dubai divergence reinforces the advantage of sour crude, especially for price-sensitive refiners in Asia and the Middle East.
• U.S. exports remain structurally competitive, thanks to their flexibility in logistics and arbitrage.
• New production hubs, such as Suriname, are redefining supply geography and could shift market share away from traditional players.
• Volatility risks remain: geopolitical tensions, sanctions, or shipping disruptions could abruptly alter the spread dynamics—traders should prepare for reversals or spread widening.

TotalEnergies predicts sustained negative Brent-Dubai spread not as a temporary quirk but as a reflection of shifting global demand, trade flows, and refinery economics. Those who align early with these fundamentals will have the arbitrage edge.